Exploring the dynamic of extreme weather events in Indonesia using large scale meteorological pattern as the forecast guidance (pilot study : Indramayu, West Java)
Principle Investigator :
Dr. Heri Kuswanto, M.Si
Prof. Richard Grotjahn, UC-Davis, USA
Prof. Edvin Aldrian, BMKG Indonesia
Source of Funding:
PEER Science Grant funded by USAID
The main goal of the project is to develop composite maps (Grotjahn and Faure, 2008) showing large scale meteorological patterns and dynamics during extreme weather events in a tropical area, where the pilot study will be conducted in Indramayu District, West Java.We focus the project on two EWEs i.e. heat waves and heavy rain that lead to drought and flood. respectively. To summarize the objectives of the research will be to answer the following hypotheses:
- Hypothesis 1: The procedure already successfully applied to find and to link the LSMPs with Sacramento area EWEs can be developed and applied to heavy rainfall in Indramayu
- Hypothesis 2: The procedure already successfully applied to find and to link the LSMPs with Sacramento area EWEs can be developed and applied to heat waves in Indramayu
This project aims to generate the following outcomes:
- Composite maps that accurately provide information about extreme weather events. The results will be implemented as guidance for forecaster in BMKG to accurately forecast the EWEs. Any catastrophe caused by the EWEs thus can be detected earlier and hence it will save the human life.
The forecast guidance will support the decision/policy making at BMKG Indonesia to issue an alert towards EWE so that the losses and damages caused by the events can be minimized or anticipated. It thus contributes to the sustainability of several aspects such as food security and economic condition of Indonesia.